As China's 2026 National Day Golden Week nears its end, local media and travel platforms have reported heavy crowds at major scenic spots, cities' shopping districts and popular destinations nationwide. From the Forbidden City in Beijing and the Terracotta Army in Xi'an to resorts in Sanya and Yunnan, long queues, visitor caps and traffic congestion have been frequently reported, pointing to strong travel demand. Yet, as in previous years, several market observers and industry analysts say that even though visitor numbers remain high, tourists appear comparatively cautious with their actual spending, with growth in per-capita outlays weak or even declining — a pattern broadly consistent with pre-holiday expectations of travel volumes rising while spending lags.

This year's National Day holiday runs from October 1 to 8, and in some regions it has been combined with the Mid-Autumn Festival break to form an extended holiday of roughly 13 days. The longer holiday window has encouraged more travelers to take medium- and long-distance trips across provinces and borders. Reuters reported that Spring Tour, a Shanghai-based travel agency, said multi-country itineraries were notably more popular this year, and outbound travelers were more willing to go farther afield, helping outbound travel sales grow faster than in the same period last year. At the same time, domestic hotel booking data show travelers tending to extend their length of stay while choosing more budget-conscious accommodation.

A Reuters report published on September 29 cited analysts saying this year's National Day holiday travel volumes could again set records, but there is no evidence of a structural pickup in everyday consumer spending. Ailsa Liao, an analyst at Forthright Securities, described the phenomenon as a "K-shaped" spending pattern — in which quantitative indicators such as travel volume keep rising strongly, while actual per-capita spending remains under pressure, with the two trend lines diverging like the two strokes of the letter "K." She said the pattern reflects continued restraint among Chinese consumers on non-essential spending amid income expectations and wealth effects that have yet to meaningfully improve.

This pattern of rising volume but lagging spending is not unique to this year. According to figures previously released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism's data center, during the combined eight-day National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2025, domestic trips nationwide reached 888 million, an increase of about 123 million trips over the 765 million recorded during the seven-day 2024 National Day holiday. However, Reuters' calculations based on official data put average per-trip spending during the 2025 holiday at about 911.04 yuan — a three-year low, roughly 5 yuan below the 2024 level. In other words, even as the number of trips has climbed year after year, the tendency of travelers to "travel more but spend less" has become increasingly pronounced.

This trend has been echoed in other 2026 holidays as well. According to China Central Television, calculations by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism's data center showed that during this year's May Day holiday, domestic trips nationwide totaled about 325 million, up 3.6% year on year, while total domestic tourism spending was about 185.5 billion yuan, up 2.9%. Because trip growth outpaced spending growth, average per-trip spending fell to about 571 yuan from 574.1 yuan in 2025, below the 603.4 yuan recorded in 2019. Data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism in June also showed that during this year's three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic trips reached 124 million, up 4.4%, with total domestic tourism spending of 44.456 billion yuan; during the three-day Qingming Festival holiday, domestic trips reached 135 million, up 6.8%. Together, these holiday figures point to the same conclusion: travel scale keeps expanding, while growth in average spending per traveler clearly lags behind.

Looking back over a longer period, this same pattern was visible during China's 2026 Lunar New Year holiday. According to related reports, average daily per-capita spending by travelers during this year's Spring Festival was about 150 yuan, down roughly 11% from the same period a year earlier. Ahead of that holiday, industry forecasters had expected cross-regional passenger trips nationwide during the roughly 40-day Spring Festival travel period to reach about 9.5 billion, a record high, yet several early spending signals were described as "not encouraging," suggesting that a longer holiday alone was unlikely to fundamentally change tepid spending. Analysts generally expect China's overall retail sales growth to recover to around 4% for 2026 as a whole, a pickup that depends partly on whether official efforts to curb price wars and stabilize market prices prove effective.

Broader macroeconomic consumption data show a similarly cautious tone. Official statistics show that China's total retail sales of consumer goods grew only about 1.1% year on year in the January-August period of 2026, remaining at a low level; within that, retail sales of services rose 4.9% year on year, notably faster than the 1.0% growth in retail sales of goods — suggesting that consumers are more willing to pay for "experiential" spending such as dining, travel and entertainment, while remaining more conservative about big-ticket items such as durable goods and appliances. Analysts generally attribute this caution to the drag on household wealth effects from a multi-year downturn in the property market, compounded by unstable job-market expectations and mild deflationary pressure on prices — leading households to increase "feel-good" experiential spending while still keeping overall outlays in check. Research groups have further noted that the wealth-effect shock from the property downturn weighs most heavily on spending for durable goods such as appliances and furniture, since such purchases can easily be postponed, while deflationary expectations encourage consumers to wait for lower prices — creating a cycle in which waiting discourages buying, and weak buying in turn prompts further price cuts.

Specific booking behavior also bears this out. Platform data show that among hotel bookings for this year's National Day holiday, mid-range hotels were the most popular choice, accounting for about 33% of bookings, while only about 5% of travelers chose high-end or luxury hotels. Data from Trip.com showed that bookings for stays of seven nights or more rose 123% year on year. This suggests travelers are inclined to "stretch the holiday and spread out the spending" by extending their trips and choosing more cost-effective accommodation, rather than making large, concentrated purchases over a short period.

In the face of this spending pressure, authorities have already taken preemptive action. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism, together with other departments, launched a month-long "National Day Cultural and Tourism Consumption Month" campaign on September 22, using tourism consumption vouchers and discounted admission tickets to stimulate holiday spending; China's railway operator also added substantial additional train capacity during a 16-day peak travel period around the holiday to handle passenger flows. Several market observers say the National Day holiday has long been viewed as an important window for gauging domestic demand and consumer confidence in China, and if the "more travelers, less spending" pattern seen so far is confirmed by official data once the holiday ends, it would further underscore that China's consumption recovery still has a long way to go, while providing a basis for further policy measures to support consumption.