Back to feed
Economy
TAT Forecasts China's Golden Week Will Bring 11.5 Billion Baht to Thailand, With 250,000 Chinese Visitors Expected in 13 Days
Reporter 欧亚时报编辑部
As China's "Golden Week" holiday, which joins National Day with the Mid-Autumn Festival, draws near, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has issued a forecast that roughly 250,000 Chinese tourists will travel to Thailand during the 13-day holiday window from September 25 to October 7, 2026, generating approximately 11.5 billion baht (about US$233 million) in revenue for the Thai tourism industry. TAT Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said the data shows China's outbound travel market is showing clearer signs of recovery, with the forecast visitor number up about 24% year-on-year, while the projected revenue is expected to rise by as much as 37% — a growth rate well ahead of the increase in visitor numbers.
Thapanee noted in related remarks that the phenomenon of revenue growth outpacing visitor growth presents an opportunity for Thailand to shift the Chinese market from "competing on volume" to "competing on value" — that is, encouraging more Chinese tourists to choose higher-quality, higher-spending travel products and itineraries. She said Thai tourism authorities would use this holiday window to give Chinese travellers stronger reasons to choose Thailand, including encouraging longer stays, boosting repeat-visit rates, and supporting higher-value tourism spending, thereby cementing Thailand's position as a top-of-mind destination for Chinese outbound travellers.
To support this holiday marketing window, the Tourism Authority of Thailand had already launched a dedicated promotional campaign called "Nihao Month 2026," part of the broader "Amazing Thailand" marketing plan, built around the emotional appeal of "China and Thailand as one family," aiming to strengthen Thailand's recognition and goodwill among Chinese consumers during the National Day and Mid-Autumn holiday period. Public reporting around this travel wave also notes that direct flights between China and Thailand are being added, with reports indicating six China-Thailand direct routes being increased in frequency or resumed to handle the holiday travel peak.
That said, the optimistic forecast also faces a real-world complication. Just as Golden Week approached, Bangkok was hit by one of its more severe bouts of heavy rain and flooding in recent years, with accumulated rainfall in some areas exceeding 300-330 millimetres within 72 hours, prompting all 50 of Bangkok's districts to declare disaster-response status at various points, affecting more than 52,000 households, with nearly 4,900 people moved into temporary shelters, and disrupting operations and baggage handling at some airports. TAT said the flooding could reduce the number of Chinese tourists visiting during Golden Week by 5% to 10% versus the original forecast, with the main driver not actual travel disruption but rather images and videos of the flooding circulating widely on Chinese social media, stoking concern among some prospective travellers in what amounts to a "perception crisis."
In response to this perception crisis, TAT also stressed that Bangkok's major international airports continue to operate normally, and that popular Chinese-tourist destinations such as Phuket and Chiang Mai were not directly affected by this round of flooding. Relevant agencies have launched rapid confidence-building publicity on Chinese social media platforms to reassure prospective travellers that Thailand as a whole remains open and that travel can proceed as normal. Subsequent reports indicate that while some tourists adjusted their itineraries out of flood concerns, shifting to unaffected areas such as Pattaya and Phuket, most Chinese travellers interviewed said they had not cancelled their overall Thailand plans because of the flooding, and arrival numbers in the run-up to Golden Week still recorded year-on-year growth. The Thai Hotels Association, for its part, expects the flooding's impact on Bangkok hotel occupancy in September-October to stay within 10%.
Viewed over a longer timeframe, the Chinese market has always been of outsized importance to Thailand's tourism industry, though it has also experienced marked volatility over the past two years. Public data show that Chinese visitor arrivals to Thailand reached about 6.73 million for full-year 2024, making China the country's largest foreign source market that year. But in 2025, the market was hit by negative sentiment around "safety in Thailand" — including the chain reaction from the case of Chinese actor Wang Xing, who was lured and went missing near the Thailand-Myanmar border — sharply denting Chinese travellers' willingness to visit for a period. Full-year 2025 Chinese arrivals fell about 34% year-on-year to roughly 4.47 million, and by headcount China was overtaken by Malaysia, slipping to Thailand's second-largest source market; however, Chinese visitors still generated the highest tourism revenue of any nationality, contributing close to 250 billion baht for the year.
Heading into 2026, after Thailand rolled out repeated rounds of confidence-building and marketing measures, the Chinese market showed clear signs of recovery. According to reports, by early September 2026 Thailand had cumulatively welcomed more than 3.64 million Chinese tourists for the year, restoring China to the position of Thailand's top foreign source market. Market analysts also note that movements in the yuan-baht exchange rate have helped boost Chinese travellers' willingness to visit to some degree: the baht has weakened against the yuan by about 9.8%, trading at roughly 4.93 baht per yuan, making Thailand relatively more price-attractive for Chinese tourists compared with before — another factor helping lift expectations for this Golden Week travel wave.
On balance, TAT believes that although the Bangkok flooding has added short-term uncertainty to this Golden Week forecast, taking into account the recovery trend in China's outbound travel market, exchange-rate factors, and Thailand's continued stepped-up marketing and flight-capacity measures, Chinese tourists are still expected to contribute roughly 11.5 billion baht to Thailand over the 13-day holiday from September 25 to October 7, a 37% year-on-year increase in revenue alongside a roughly 24% rise in visitor numbers. This holiday spending window is also seen as an important link between the autumn season and the upcoming 2027 Lunar New Year travel season, and how it actually plays out will serve as a key bellwether for the pace of Thailand's tourism recovery for the year as a whole.
To support this Golden Week travel wave, Thai companies and agencies have also rolled out a series of complementary measures. For example, telecom operator AIS announced it would offer 8GB of free data to travellers entering on Chinese passports, while also supporting invitations for Chinese key opinion leaders (KOLs) to take familiarisation (FAM) trips around Thailand to keep generating exposure and buzz on Chinese social platforms. Looking at full-year targets, TAT had previously announced an overall 2026 goal of attracting about 36.7 million international tourists for the year, with plans to gradually restore the Chinese market to around 6 million visitors annually, moving back toward pre-2024 peak levels. Actual visitor and revenue figures from this Golden Week will serve as an important early signal of whether that full-year recovery target stays on track, and TAT said it would keep closely monitoring the flooding's follow-on effects and Chinese travellers' actual responses, adjusting its promotional and outreach strategy for the next phase as the situation develops.
