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Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok hosted the 13th Chula-ASEAN Dialogue on Tuesday, August 18 (local time), under the theme "The Once and Future ASEAN: Global Shifts, Institutional Agility, and the Path to 2045." The dialogue brought together scholars, policy researchers and international relations experts from across ASEAN member states to discuss how the bloc can preserve unity and centrality, and turn external shocks into opportunities for regional governance reform, amid intensifying geopolitical rivalry, global economic fragmentation, and the rise of the Global South. Participants broadly agreed that the impact of climate change is no longer merely an environmental issue, but is increasingly becoming central to regional economic stability and competitiveness, intertwined with these deeper geopolitical and economic shifts.

Piti Srisangnam, executive director of the ASEAN Foundation, told the dialogue that the region is currently experiencing "unprecedented uncertainty," driven by the compounding effects of geopolitical rivalry, economic fragmentation, global supply-chain restructuring, climate disruptions and rapid digital transformation. He said the key question for ASEAN is how it can preserve its centrality amid this profound transformation of the global order, and use open, inclusive and cooperative regional frameworks to turn external uncertainty into an opportunity to shape a more inclusive regional order. Several experts at the dialogue said ASEAN's resilience comes not from avoiding conflict, but from its institutional ability to remain cohesive, relevant and forward-looking.

Notably, Bangkok had already seen an intensive round of discussion on climate resilience shortly before this dialogue. On August 7, around ASEAN Day, the C asean Forum 2026, organized by the ASEAN Business Advisory Council-linked C asean, was held under the theme "Resilient ASEAN: Connectivity as a Competitive Advantage." One of its panels, titled "Strengthening ASEAN's Physical Resilience," similarly linked climate adaptation capacity closely to regional economic competitiveness, forming an important backdrop for understanding this month's surge of ASEAN discussion on climate resilience.

In that panel on "physical resilience," one statistic experts cited drew particular attention: parts of Thailand saw a week's rainfall last year (2025) reach 35 percent of the region's total annual precipitation. Associate Professor Witaya Wannasuphoprasit, dean of the Faculty of Engineering at Chulalongkorn University and chairman of its Center for Water Resilience, said such extreme rainfall events reveal a failure that is not simply meteorological, but increasingly "a failure of design, of coordination, and — increasingly — of economics." He explained that current rainfall patterns have become faster and more erratic than existing forecasting tools can track, overwhelming drainage systems that were originally designed for a gentler climate.

Several engineers, a landscape architect and a Japanese development specialist on the panel jointly argued that Southeast Asia's climate exposure is no longer a peripheral issue for environment ministries, but a direct threat to the region's economic competitiveness. To illustrate the potential economic cost of such climate shocks, the panel cited the historical example of Thailand's 2011 floods, which caused an estimated US$46 billion in economic losses and disrupted global supply chains, affecting numerous multinational companies that relied on production bases in Thailand.

On how to strengthen regional climate resilience, experts at the panel put forward three policy recommendations: first, strengthen knowledge-sharing and experience exchange among ASEAN member states facing similar disaster risks; second, empower local governments and communities, since the impact of disasters is ultimately borne at the local level; and third, combine modern technology with traditional wisdom — such as Thailand's "sufficiency economy" philosophy and comparable community-based knowledge traditions in Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and Cambodia. Experts also noted that Thailand is working with international academic partners, including the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), to co-develop a "Thailand Climate Model" that uses artificial intelligence to achieve faster, more precise rainfall predictions than conventional forecasting methods allow.

Taken together, the two rounds of discussion held in Bangkok this month show that the climate resilience challenges ASEAN faces are increasingly intertwined with broader risks such as geopolitical rivalry, global economic fragmentation and the rise of the Global South — risks no single member state can address alone. Whether it is the questions of institutional resilience and regional centrality discussed at the 13th Chula-ASEAN Dialogue, or the concrete adaptation measures proposed at the "Strengthening ASEAN's Physical Resilience" panel, both convey the same message: climate change has evolved from a purely environmental challenge into a strategic issue directly bearing on ASEAN's economic stability and regional competitiveness. As ASEAN moves toward its "Vision 2045," how the bloc strengthens regional climate cooperation and builds adaptive capacity amid a highly uncertain global landscape will be an important test of its unity and governance capability.