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Economy
China's National Day Holiday Draws Record Crowds, But Spending Recovery Stays Uneven Amid Deflation, Property Slump
Reporter 欧亚时报编辑部
China's 2026 National Day holiday ran for seven days, from Thursday, October 1 to Wednesday, October 7. Unlike 2025, when the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays were combined into an eight-day break, this year the two holidays were scheduled separately: the Mid-Autumn Festival break fell on September 25-27, with three working days in between before the National Day holiday began, making this year's National Day holiday seven days rather than the eight-day stretch cited in some earlier reports. The holiday came as China's total number of adjusted rest days for 2026 rose to 33 from 28 the previous year, alongside a "National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival Culture and Tourism Consumption Month" launched by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism on September 22, under which localities planned more than 20,000 cultural and tourism events and distributed more than 310 million yuan in consumer vouchers and subsidies. Holiday consumption showed strong travel demand and a continued recovery in services spending, but overall growth was uneven across sectors rather than a broad-based rise in both volume and prices.
China's Ministry of Transport projected about 2.13 billion cross-regional passenger trips nationwide over the seven-day holiday, an average of roughly 306 million trips per day — a relatively modest increase compared with several recent holidays. Within that total, specific metrics did set records: railways carried 25.2 million passengers on October 1 alone, a single-day record, while car-rental demand surged, with daily rentals peaking at more than 950,000 vehicles, also a record. In other words, the claim that cross-regional travel "hit a new high" is more accurately described as single-day records in specific segments such as rail travel and car rentals, rather than a sharp jump in total nationwide travel volume. To support holiday travel, China's railway operator began a 16-day Mid-Autumn and National Day transport period on September 23, and passenger vehicles with seven seats or fewer continued to enjoy toll-free highway travel during the holiday.
On the consumption side, the Ministry of Commerce's monitoring of 78 major shopping streets and commercial districts nationwide showed foot traffic up 3.4% year on year and revenue up 5.3% year on year between October 1 and 3 — a moderate pace of growth, not a double-digit increase. At the same time, the national consumer goods trade-in program for cars, appliances and other items generated 1.963 billion yuan in sales over the same period, benefiting 3.48 million consumers, making it an important policy driver of holiday spending. Catering, hospitality and entertainment/cinema spending continued the recovery seen earlier this year, but several analysts noted that this year's holiday spending showed a pattern of "volume up, price flat": travel numbers and bookings rose markedly, while growth in per-person spending and average transaction value was limited.
On entertainment spending, data from ticketing-tracker Beacon showed that as of 7:30 p.m. on October 7, total box office receipts (including pre-sales) for the National Day holiday film season (October 1-7) reached 1.151 billion yuan, with 31.63 million admissions and an average ticket price of 36.4 yuan. The top three films were the domestic mystery-thriller "Traces of Justice" (about 420 million yuan), the comedy "Mr. & Mrs. Pardon" (242 million yuan) and the imported Hollywood film "Resident Evil: Outbreak Night" (168 million yuan); this year's lineup was described as having "one strong leader, one strong follower, and diverse niche audiences," with no single blockbuster dominating. By comparison, the combined eight-day National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday box office in 2025 totaled about 1.84 billion yuan, down 13% year on year; this year's shorter, seven-day holiday failed to reach even that already-reduced total, suggesting cinema-going as a form of services consumption is still recovering only weakly.
At the local level, Beijing's holiday figures stood out: according to Xinhua, Beijing received a cumulative 23.45 million visitor trips during the National Day holiday, generating total tourism spending of 29.49 billion yuan, including 126,000 inbound visitors who spent 1.37 billion yuan; the city's 70 major commercial districts logged 60.35 million visits and 15.68 billion yuan in sales. Online travel platform data showed Beijing ranked first nationally for hotel bookings, with bookings for "multi-city" itineraries covering two or more cities up more than 30% year on year, and bookings for long-haul routes of more than 2,000 kilometers up more than 40% year on year. This roughly matches the figure cited in some reports that "Beijing's tourism and culture bookings rose 30% year on year" — but more precisely, that roughly 30% increase applied to specific booking segments such as multi-city itineraries and cross-city lodging, not to the overall growth rate of Beijing's total tourism and culture bookings.
Despite strong travel demand, consumers overall remained cautious. Ailsa Liao, an analyst at Forthright Securities, described the pattern as "K-shaped" consumption: travel volumes and bookings can stay strong even as per-capita spending remains under pressure. She also noted that per-capita tourism spending fell during both the 2025 National Day holiday and the 2026 Spring Festival holiday. Reuters calculations based on official data found that average spending per trip during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday fell to 911.04 yuan, the lowest level in three years. This year, mid-range hotels were more favored by travelers, while the share of premium mooncake gift boxes priced above 500 yuan fell from 7.2% last year to under 2%, a clear sign of consumers trading down or becoming more price-conscious.
At the macro level, deflationary pressure and a prolonged property downturn remain the main constraints on China's economic recovery. The most recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics, for August, showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 0.8% year on year, with core CPI up 1.0%, even as food prices fell 1.4% year on year; the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3.8% year on year. Although both CPI and PPI turned positive year on year this year, Reuters and other outlets, in reporting ahead of the holiday, still emphasized that domestic demand in China remains weak and deflationary pressure persists — closely tied to continued declines in food prices and a property market that has yet to emerge from its slump. On real estate, National Bureau of Statistics data showed new home prices in 70 major cities fell about 3.0% year on year in August, the 38th consecutive monthly year-on-year decline, though the smallest drop since last December; resale home prices fell 0.31% month on month, a steeper decline than July's, with 62 of the 70 cities surveyed recording month-on-month drops in resale prices.
To boost holiday spending, authorities rolled out a range of supporting measures before and during the holiday, including the month-long National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival Culture and Tourism Consumption Month, more than 20,000 cultural and tourism events with over 310 million yuan in consumer vouchers and subsidies, the trade-in program for cars and appliances, toll-free highway travel, and additional rail services. As of this writing, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism's data center had not yet released official nationwide figures for domestic trips and total tourism spending during this year's National Day holiday — figures that in past years were typically published one to two days after the holiday ended. Market analysts broadly expect that once official data is released, travel volumes will likely show continued growth, but that, given cautious consumer sentiment, persistent deflationary pressure and the ongoing property slump, growth in tourism revenue and overall retail sales may not reach double digits — a key window into the true strength of China's domestic demand recovery.
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