China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on July 15 that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 69.5704 trillion yuan in the first half of 2026, up 4.7 percent year-on-year in real terms — largely in line with market expectations of around 4.5 percent. Preliminary calculations show the economy expanded by roughly 3.6 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year, the largest same-period increment in five years — a sum roughly equivalent to the entire annual economic output of Jiangxi province last year, underscoring China's continued growth resilience even as its economic base keeps expanding.

Quarterly data showed GDP growth of 5.0 percent in the first quarter, slowing to 4.3 percent in the second quarter — the weakest single-quarter pace since late 2022, and below some overseas analysts' forecasts of around 4.5 percent. NBS officials told reporters at the briefing that the economy's first-half performance was broadly in line with expectations, with the national economy "withstanding external pressure to achieve steady progress," laying a solid foundation for meeting full-year development goals. 2026 marks the opening year of China's 15th Five-Year Plan; Beijing, Shanghai and Jiangsu have each set 2026 growth targets of "around 5 percent," while Guangdong set a range of 4.5 to 5 percent — signaling that Beijing's own full-year target is likely anchored at around 5 percent as well.

A continued upgrade in industrial structure was a standout feature of the first half. Overall industrial output above designated size rose 5.4 percent year-on-year, with value-added in equipment manufacturing up 9.3 percent — accelerating 0.4 percentage points from the first quarter — and now accounting for 37.0 percent of total industrial output, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year. By sub-sector, the electronics industry grew 14.8 percent, contributing 27.9 percent of total industrial growth, the largest share of any category; rail, ship and aerospace equipment manufacturing grew 12.6 percent, instruments and meters 8.8 percent, specialized equipment 8.2 percent, general equipment 7.6 percent, and automobiles 7.0 percent. High-tech manufacturing value-added rose 13.3 percent, accelerating 0.8 percentage points from the first quarter, with integrated circuit manufacturing up 67.3 percent, specialized electronic materials up 31.0 percent, and aircraft manufacturing up 26.7 percent — pointing to accelerating breakthroughs in high-end manufacturing.

A new generation of information technology led by artificial intelligence is increasingly permeating manufacturing. The NBS said AI-related applications drove output of integrated circuits, optical fiber and electronic components up 23.1 percent, 19.2 percent and 13.0 percent respectively. Spurred by new growth drivers such as embodied intelligence and human-machine collaboration, output of robot reducers rose 57.3 percent, industrial robots rose 28.0 percent to 538,000 units, and service robots rose 11.9 percent. The rapid expansion up and down the robotics supply chain aligns closely with Beijing's policy push for "intelligent-plus" industrial upgrading and has become an important pillar of new industrial momentum in the first half.

In new-energy vehicles, national NEV output reached 7.399 million units in the first half, up 6.0 percent year-on-year, keeping China the world's largest NEV producer. The humanoid robot sector saw explosive growth: market research data show global humanoid robot shipments totaled roughly 19,100 units in the first half, more than double the year-earlier level, with Chinese manufacturers accounting for over 97 percent of the global total. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology expects full-year 2026 humanoid robot output to exceed 100,000 units. Customs data also show China's robot product exports reached nearly 20 billion yuan in the first five months of the year, signaling the industry's expansion from the domestic market into global supply chains.

On trade, China's total goods imports and exports rose 16.9 percent year-on-year in the first half, with exports of mechanical and electrical products up 20.1 percent and rising to 63.5 percent of total exports — the main driver of export growth. The NBS said that against a complex and volatile global trade environment and broadly slowing growth among major economies, China's foreign trade showed strong structural resilience, with the rising share of mechanical, electrical and high-tech product exports reflecting an accelerating shift in China's export mix from labor-intensive goods toward capital- and technology-intensive products.

Domestic consumption recovered more modestly than exports and industrial output. First-half retail sales of consumer goods totaled 24.8722 trillion yuan, up just 1.3 percent year-on-year — well below overall GDP growth. Combining goods and services retail sales, growth was 2.7 percent, with services retail sales up 5.3 percent, notably outpacing the 1.1 percent growth in goods retail sales — suggesting household consumption is tilting from traditional goods toward services, even as overall consumption momentum still needs further repair.

Structural strains in the economy remain pronounced. Real estate development investment totaled 3.8074 trillion yuan in the first half, down 18.0 percent year-on-year — a deeper decline than the 16.2 percent drop recorded in the first five months — with residential investment down 17.8 percent, newly started floor space down 23.4 percent and completed floor space down 23.7 percent; the property market remains in a bottoming-out adjustment phase, with new- and existing-home prices continuing to fall year-on-year. Nationwide fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 22.637 trillion yuan, down 5.7 percent year-on-year, though the decline narrows to 2.7 percent excluding real estate development, reflecting continued weak private investment appetite. On prices, the consumer price index rose just 1.2 percent year-on-year in May, with food prices down 1.7 percent, underscoring persistent low-inflation — and at times disinflationary — pressure. Several overseas investment banks noted that the second quarter's 4.3 percent growth was the weakest since late 2022, and that fading "front-loaded export" effects, a still-bottoming property sector and soft household consumption appetite are the main challenges facing China's economy in the second half.

The rapid expansion of China's NEV and robotics industries is also spilling over into Southeast Asian supply chains, with Thailand emerging as a key market for Chinese firms' expansion plans. In April, Chery Automobile's OMODA and JAECOO brands officially began production at their new-energy vehicle plant in Thailand's Rayong province, targeting annual capacity of 80,000 units by 2030, while Chinese battery maker Sunwoda plans to invest more than $1 billion in an EV and energy-storage battery production base in Thailand. In robotics, Thailand's Board of Investment approved combined investment of more than 10 billion baht in February from five Chinese companies — Xusheng Group, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Hangzhou Sanping Electromechanical Transmission, Beite Technology and Tuopu Group — to build what the BOI describes as Thailand's first humanoid robot component production base, located in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC). Analysts say the rapid growth of China's emerging industries is spilling over through supply chains to create new manufacturing investment opportunities for regional economies, including Thailand.

Looking to the second half, most analysts expect China's full-year GDP growth to land in the 4.5-to-5-percent range, broadly meeting the annual target, supported by continued stabilization policies and fast-growing emerging industries. But the property sector's adjustment, uncertainty in the external trade environment, and a still-sluggish recovery in domestic demand remain key variables that will test the resilience of China's economy through the rest of the year.