During China's combined National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday from September 25 to October 7, 2026, a 'Golden Week' outbound destination ranking released by travel platform Tongcheng Travel showed Bangkok topping the list for the first time, making the Thai capital the most popular overseas destination for mainland Chinese travelers, ahead of long-time favorites such as Seoul and Kuala Lumpur. The shift is widely seen as closely tied to persistent tension in China-Japan relations, which has accelerated the diversion of Chinese tourists toward Southeast Asia.

According to Tongcheng Travel's top-10 outbound Golden Week destination list, Bangkok ranked first, followed by Kuala Lumpur and Seoul in second and third place, with Istanbul, Sydney, Singapore, Bali, Ho Chi Minh City, London and Dubai rounding out the top ten. Notably, Japan — which had topped a similar ranking from another platform, Tuniu, during the same period last year — has fallen out of the top ten lists of multiple platforms this year, underscoring a clear reshuffling of Chinese outbound travel patterns.

It should be noted that Golden Week outbound destination rankings vary depending on which travel platform and methodology is used. Data released over the same period by Ctrip showed Seoul ranking first among popular outbound destinations, followed by Hong Kong and Bangkok in second and third place, with flight bookings to Seoul up more than 50% year-on-year and bookings to Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Hanoi and London all up more than 20%. Taken together, however, data from multiple platforms show that Asian destinations — Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Indonesia — formed the clear top tier of outbound demand this Golden Week, with intercontinental long-haul destinations such as the UK, the US and Australia trailing behind. This underscores that, regardless of whether the literal top spot belongs to Bangkok or Seoul, an 'Asia-first' pattern in Chinese outbound travel was especially pronounced this Golden Week.

The cooling of China-Japan relations forms the key backdrop to this shift. Last November, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made controversial remarks on the Taiwan issue during a parliamentary session, triggering a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations; Chinese authorities subsequently issued a travel advisory urging citizens to avoid travel to Japan in the near term. Data from several Chinese travel agencies showed that within a single day of the advisory, the cancellation rate for Japan bookings surged from about 10% to 70%, with large numbers of planned trips cancelled or rebooked. Japan's tourism agency data showed that in the first three quarters of 2025, Chinese visitors accounted for roughly a quarter of all foreign arrivals and remained Japan's top source market by a wide margin, spending an average of 277,000 yen per person — higher than the all-visitor average of 227,000 yen — meaning the contraction of the Chinese market has dealt a clear blow to Japan's tourism and retail sectors.

The tension between Beijing and Tokyo has created a clear 'diversion' effect benefiting Southeast Asian countries. South Korea, Thailand, Singapore and other neighboring destinations have quickly adjusted their marketing strategies and added flight routes to capture Chinese travelers rerouting their plans. A representative of Thailand's tourism industry association has publicly said that the strained China-Japan relationship 'could be good news for Thailand,' with some Chinese tourists who had originally planned to visit Japan choosing Thailand instead.

Aviation capacity data bears out this trend. Flight data platforms show that international flight bookings from China grew about 22.5% year-on-year for the Mid-Autumn and National Day holiday period of September 25 to October 7, with flights to Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Laos up a combined 20% and flights to longer-haul destinations such as the UK, Germany and Spain up roughly 15%. Malaysia Airlines said it expects to carry more than 52,000 passengers on its China routes during this year's Golden Week, up 21% year-on-year. China's Civil Aviation Administration projected that the aviation sector would carry 31.19 million passengers nationwide over the Mid-Autumn and National Day holiday, with average daily passenger volume up about 3% year-on-year and a single-day peak expected to exceed 2.6 million, surpassing last year's level.

Thailand's Ministry of Tourism and Sports forecast that around 250,000 Chinese tourists would visit during the 13-day holiday from September 25 to October 7, up 24% year-on-year, generating an estimated 11.5 billion baht (about 2.3 billion yuan) in tourism revenue, up 37% year-on-year. Another notable trend is that, driven by the combined Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, the average length of stay for Chinese visitors to Thailand extended from about eight days last year to roughly 13 days this year, with multi-destination and in-depth itinerary bookings up 84% and bookings for flights to island destinations such as Phuket up 78%. To capture this travel window, the Tourism Authority of Thailand launched the third edition of its 'Nihao Month' marketing campaign over the same period, themed around 'China and Thailand are one family,' using influencer site visits, cultural experience activities and exclusive promotions to further boost Chinese travelers' willingness to visit and their satisfaction.

Bangkok's top ranking, however, came with complicating factors. In late September, Bangkok and several surrounding provinces were hit by heavy rainfall, with more than 300 millimeters accumulating in some areas within 72 hours; all 50 districts of the city declared disaster emergencies, more than 52,000 households were affected and nearly 4,900 people were moved into temporary shelters. The Tourism Authority of Thailand at one point warned that, in a worst-case scenario, Chinese arrivals during the Golden Week could fall by as much as 20% if the flooding persisted, later revising that estimate down to a 5-10% decline. China's embassy in Thailand issued a related consular notice. However, according to later TAT updates, because Bangkok's main airports continued operating normally and popular destinations such as Phuket and Chiang Mai were unaffected, and as flood-related images faded from Chinese social media, Chinese arrivals in the early part of the Golden Week actually rose about 15% year-on-year, with no mass cancellations observed. Separately, Thailand's unilateral visa-free stay period was shortened from 60 to 30 days starting September 15, though the reciprocal China-Thailand visa exemption agreement — allowing stays of up to 30 days per entry and no more than 90 days within any 180-day period — remained unchanged and posed no real obstacle to this year's Golden Week travelers.

Analysts note that Bangkok's rise to the top of the Golden Week destination rankings reflects both the short-term impact of China-Japan uncertainty on the region's tourism landscape and Thailand's sustained efforts in recent years around visa facilitation, route expansion and culturally-targeted marketing toward China. As Chinese outbound travelers gradually shift from a price-driven to an experience-driven mindset, whether Southeast Asian countries can convert this current wave of visitors into a stable, long-term source market will depend on their continued investment in flight capacity, disaster response and service quality.