According to the latest data released by China's General Administration of Customs (GACC) on October 14, China's total goods trade in the first three quarters of 2026 reached 39.94 trillion yuan (about US$5.9 trillion), up 18.8% year-on-year — the fastest growth rate for the same period in roughly five years. Of this, exports totaled 23.2 trillion yuan, up 16.4%, while imports reached 16.74 trillion yuan, up 22.3%, with imports growing faster than exports. GACC spokesperson and Deputy Commissioner Wang Jun said at a State Council Information Office briefing that the growth rate ranks among the highest of major global economies, reflecting the resilience and vitality of China's foreign trade.
At the October 14 briefing, Wang Jun summarized the first three quarters of 2026 with four characteristics he called "fast, new, excellent, good" — referring to the pace of growth, the newness of growth drivers, the optimization of trade structure, and the quality of results. He highlighted that exports of China's own-brand products grew 26.7% during the period, pointing to the rising international competitiveness and brand influence of Chinese enterprises. On the outlook for the fourth quarter, Wang said continued growth in trade had "a solid foundation and firm support," signaling official optimism about the full-year trade picture.
Quarterly figures show trade growth accelerating steadily: 15.3% in the first quarter, rising to 18.3% in the second, and further to 22.3% in the third. Monthly data showed China's September trade volume reaching 5.16 trillion yuan — the first time a single month has topped 5 trillion yuan — up 27.5% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of double-digit monthly growth. Analysts say the quarter-by-quarter acceleration reflects a renewed rebound in global demand for China's manufacturing capacity and technology products.
On the drivers behind the growth, Wang Jun said the equipment manufacturing sector contributed nearly 90% of the increase in exports, making it the main pillar of trade growth. Integrated circuit exports surged 99.1% year-on-year — nearly doubling — making it one of the fastest-growing single export categories. In addition, combined trade in industrial robots, electronic components, computer parts and electrical equipment exceeded 10 trillion yuan, up 58.9% year-on-year, together lifting China's overall trade growth rate by 11.3 percentage points and becoming the core engine of trade expansion.
A Xinhua report noted that the trade growth in the first three quarters came against a backdrop of "unabated external trade friction pressures." GACC data showed that China's trade grew with more than 180 countries and regions worldwide during the period, reflecting the success of market diversification in offsetting the risks of volatility in any single market. This performance stands in contrast to 2025, when China's full-year goods trade totaled 45.47 trillion yuan, up 3.8% and surpassing 45 trillion yuan for the first time — with exports to the United States falling 20% for the year even as exports to other markets continued to grow, while private enterprises' share of the country's total trade rose to 57.3%, making them the main driver of trade growth.
On the business side, private enterprises' trade reached 22.73 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, up 19.1% year-on-year and accounting for 56.9% of China's total foreign trade, further cementing their role as the main force behind trade growth. Product mix continued to upgrade, with combined exports of electric passenger vehicles, lithium batteries and photovoltaic products — the so-called "new three items" — rising 43.6%, a key marker of structural upgrading in trade. Notably, trade with ASEAN was especially active: China's trade with the bloc reached 6.84 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, up 22.7% year-on-year, while third-quarter trade alone hit 2.5 trillion yuan, surging 31.4% — with ASEAN continuing to hold its position as China's largest trading partner, reflecting the ongoing dividends of regional economic integration.
In terms of trading-partner structure, trade with Belt and Road partner countries reached 20.37 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, up 17.1% and accounting for 51% of China's total foreign trade — showing these countries have become a pivotal part of China's trade map. Meanwhile, trade with China's free-trade-agreement partners reached 19.55 trillion yuan, up 30%, contributing more than 70% of the overall increase in trade, underscoring the growing pull of free-trade arrangements on China's trade growth.
Several economists have attributed the primary driver of this export surge to the global AI investment boom. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, said the sharp rise in exports of integrated circuits and related chips is currently the single biggest driver of export growth, with rising prices also playing a significant role. Feng Lin, a researcher at the same institution, said September's export surge was driven mainly by the global AI investment wave, which accelerated exports of chips and related goods. However, Tian Di, an analyst at Guosen Securities, cautioned that growth in categories such as integrated circuits increasingly reflects "shrinking volume, rising price" — meaning export volume growth is limited while price gains are more pronounced — suggesting trade growth could gradually slow in the fourth quarter.
Analysts broadly agree that the strong trade performance in the first three quarters of 2026 stems both from China's sustained progress in high-end manufacturing and technology products, and from external demand driven by the expansion of the global AI industry chain. With China's trade growth having now posted six straight months of double-digit gains, markets are watching closely whether this momentum can be sustained into the fourth quarter, and how the volume-price structure of key exports such as chips will evolve — a key window for assessing China's full-year trade trajectory.
Analysts say the sharp acceleration in trade growth in the first three quarters of 2026, compared with the 3.8% growth posted for all of 2025, shows Chinese businesses are accelerating market diversification and industrial upgrading to cope with uncertainties such as tariff barriers in major markets amid a complex and volatile international trade environment. Several institutions forecast that if fourth-quarter trade growth remains in double digits, China's full-year goods trade total for 2026 could set a new record, providing strong support for meeting the country's full-year economic growth target. For ASEAN economies including Thailand, China's trade with the bloc growing 22.7% in the first three quarters and accelerating to 31.4% in the third quarter alone suggests regional supply chains and trade flows stand to keep benefiting from the strength of China's overall trade momentum.