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China's General Administration of Customs (GACC) reported on July 14 that China's total goods trade — imports and exports combined — reached 25.47 trillion yuan (about $3.75 trillion) in the first half of 2026, up 16.9% year-on-year, the first time the figure has topped 25 trillion yuan in a first half. The growth rate was the fastest for any quarter or half-year period since the third quarter of 2021, with the second quarter alone growing 18.4% to 13.61 trillion yuan, accelerating further from the first quarter in a clear "low start, strong finish" pattern.

Notably, this growth rate is far above the roughly low-single-digit annual pace — in some years as low as 1% to 5% — that characterized China's foreign trade between 2022 and 2025, and also well above what most domestic and international institutions had previously forecast for the first half of 2026, with several institutions describing it as an unusually strong rebound rarely seen in recent years. Analysts generally attribute this to a combination of factors: a rebound in order volumes following the temporary easing of US-China tariffs, the global boom in AI hardware investment, and a relatively low base of comparison from the same period last year.

Broken down, exports totaled 14.73 trillion yuan in the first half, up 13.4% year-on-year (up 17.6% in US dollar terms), while imports reached 10.74 trillion yuan, up 22.1% (up 26.6% in dollar terms) — import growth notably outpacing exports, suggesting a simultaneous rebound in domestic demand and raw-material procurement. In dollar terms, the first-half trade surplus reached roughly $576 billion, a record high for any first half on record. June alone stood out: exports totaled $412.39 billion, up 27% year-on-year, while imports reached $286.76 billion, up 36% — both well above general market expectations.

By product category, exports of electromechanical products reached 9.36 trillion yuan in the first half, up 20.1% year-on-year and rising to 63.5% of total exports, up 3.5 percentage points from a year earlier; exports of high-tech products grew 39%, and exports of self-owned-brand products rose 25.4%. Combined exports of the so-called "New Three" — electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells — reached 819.66 billion yuan, surging 46.1% year-on-year and topping 800 billion yuan in a first half for the first time, with their share of total exports rising from 4.32% to 5.56%. Within that category, EV export volumes rose 68.7% year-on-year, lithium battery exports grew 37.6%, and solar cell exports rose 19.6%.

The fastest-growing categories were semiconductor-related products: exports of memory components rose 113.2% and integrated circuits rose 88.7%, both driven by the global boom in AI hardware investment, with AI, computer and electronic-component-related products together contributing about 6.9 percentage points to export growth. In addition, exports of humanoid robots and related smart devices surpassed 10,000 units for the first time, shipped to more than 90 countries and regions. In contrast to these high-growth categories, exports of traditional labor-intensive goods such as textiles remained weak, reflecting China's export structure accelerating its shift toward higher-tech, higher-value-added sectors.

Separate estimates suggest that, looking only at China's direct exports to the United States, the first half saw a decline of roughly 16%, reflecting companies increasingly rerouting trade through third countries such as those in Southeast Asia and Mexico, or restructuring supply chains to avoid tariffs — a trend that echoes recent moves by countries including Mexico to tighten scrutiny of Chinese goods transiting through their markets. Over the same period, some estimates put China's trade surplus with the US, on an annualized basis, at around $340 billion, though this figure has not been fully corroborated by official data and should be treated as indicative only, pending confirmation from official statistics on both sides.

By trading partner, ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with China-ASEAN trade up 18.2% year-on-year, while China-EU trade grew 10.2%. Trade with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 12.97 trillion yuan, up 14.8%, raising their share of China's total trade to 50.9% — meaning more than half of China's total foreign trade now flows to Belt and Road partner countries. By contrast, China-US trade totaled roughly 2 trillion yuan, its share of China's total trade falling to 7.9%; first-quarter China-US trade fell 18.7% year-on-year, largely due to US tariff increases, but rebounded to 13.7% growth in the second quarter following the "stabilization" of relations after the two countries' presidents met in May.

By type of enterprise, private companies' imports and exports reached 14.53 trillion yuan in the first half, up 17% year-on-year and accounting for about 57% of total foreign trade, continuing to serve as the main driver of China's trade growth, a share notably higher than five years ago and reflecting the private sector's growing weight in China's foreign trade landscape. GACC Deputy Commissioner Wang Jun told a State Council Information Office press briefing on July 14 that the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in May had provided "stable expectations" for bilateral economic and trade relations, one of the key reasons for the marked acceleration in second-quarter growth compared with the first quarter. GACC spokesperson and Director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis Lyu Daliang summarized the first half's trade performance as "stable, new, active and integrated" (稳、新、活、融).

From a broader vantage point, trade in services also grew over the same period, with imports and exports totaling roughly 3.8 trillion yuan in the first half, up 8.3% year-on-year — a trend that echoed the growth in goods trade and together supported China's overall foreign trade performance in the first half of the year, further underscoring the resilience the Chinese economy has continued to show under multiple external pressures.

Wang Jun also cautioned that foreign trade in the second half still faces risks including persistent global inflationary pressure, rising trade barriers, geopolitical conflict and continued strain on global supply chains, and said there was no room for excessive optimism about the growth trend. Overall, analysts say the 16.9% first-half trade growth rate is an unusually strong performance rarely seen in recent years, reflecting both short-term factors — a temporary easing of US-China tariffs and a low base effect — layered on top of structural drivers such as the AI hardware export boom, with whether the momentum can be sustained into the second half still to be seen. Most economists suggest that when watching second-half data, the key variables to track will be whether monthly growth rates start to ease and whether US-China tariff policy sees any reversal — both of which will be crucial in determining whether this round of strong trade growth can be sustained.